MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1641

ACUS11 KWNS 290206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290206
MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-290330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0906 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NEB/NORTHEAST KS TO IA/MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537...

VALID 290206Z - 290330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES IN THE
SHORT-TERM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KS THROUGH
MID/PERHAPS LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE...SOME SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED ONGOING STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KS COULD POSE
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT YET THIS EVENING NEAR A FRONTAL ZONE THAT
GENERALLY ANGLES NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN KS.
WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEGUN TO COOL...RESIDUAL STEEP LOW-MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH LIKELY STORM PERSISTENCE/SOME
ADDITIONAL CELL MERGERS...MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOUNT FOR A CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY FOR DOWNBURSTS/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. A DEGREE OF UPSCALE GROWTH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS WITH AID OF A NOCTURNALLY INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...AS A LONGER PERSISTENCE/POTENTIAL
EASTWARD EXPANSION OF TSTMS SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS EVENING
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT. SOME SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IF STORMS ACQUIRE UPDRAFT ROTATION /FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
NORTHEAST OF WARM FRONT/...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WARM THERMAL PROFILES
ALOFT AND ONLY MODERATE SOURCE REGION MUCAPE /1500-2000 J PER KG/
IMPLY THAT ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. MORE SO...HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE.

..GUYER.. 07/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON 39479911 39859842 40949827 40849620 40479537 38949591
39179744 39479911

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