ACUS11 KWNS 292249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292249 COR
MNZ000-SDZ000-300015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 292249Z - 300015Z
CORRECTED FOR DISCUSSION AREA
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NCNTRL SD MAY POSE A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THROUGH MID EVENING. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NCNTRL SD HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN
ZONE OF DEEP MIXING WHERE INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER AND 40+
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXIST. FARTHER EAST OVER NERN SD...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS NOT EXPERIENCED AS MUCH MIXING WHERE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 80S. THOUGH
INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE GREATER IN THIS REGION...THE CAP IS ALSO
LIKELY STRONGER WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST SWLY FLOW LOWERS
CONFIDENCE IN FUTURE STORM EVOLUTION. NEVERTHELESS...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STORMS MAY CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
BEFORE WEAKENING TOWARD MID EVENING.
..DIAL/MEAD.. 07/29/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...
LAT...LON 45529982 45829875 45849726 45619669 44649691 45019970
45529982
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