MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1654

ACUS11 KWNS 302219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302219
MSZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-302345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1654
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0519 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MO BOOTHEEL...NERN AR...WRN TN AND NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302219Z - 302345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM
INTENSIFICATION FROM SERN MO INTO NERN AR. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL MAY BECOME POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...CUMULUS HAS BEEN INCREASING AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN MO INTO NERN AR IN VICINITY
OF A SFC LOW AND QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN KS INTO
SRN MO...NERN AR AND NWRN MS. DEEP MIXING IN WARM SECTOR HAS
RESULTED IN 100S TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THE SFC
LAYER IS SOMEWHAT COOLER EAST OF THE FRONT WITH LOW-MID 90S
TEMPERATURES AND LOW 70S DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000-2500
J/KG. CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 850 MB HAS LIMITED SFC BASED
DEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND FORCING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER IS RELATIVELY
WEAK. TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE CAP IS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...SUPPORTING RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS STORMS
MOVE SEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

..DIAL/MEAD.. 07/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...SGF...

LAT...LON 36649038 35528926 34868906 34378927 34088991 34289060
35229072 36039103 36949153 36649038

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