MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1655

ACUS11 KWNS 302316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302316
MIZ000-WIZ000-310015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1655
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WI...CNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI AND NWRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 540...

VALID 302316Z - 310015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 540
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL
PERSIST NEXT HOUR OR SO FROM EXTREME NERN WI INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN
UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. ACTIVITY WILL SOON BEGIN TO CROSS LAKE MI.
UNLESS THE STORMS MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY...A WW WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED FOR LOWER MI.

DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FROM EXTREME NERN WI INTO THE ERN PENINSULA OF UPPER MI AND IS
APPROACHING THE NWRN SHORE OF LAKE MI. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NRN PART OF LOWER MI WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S. THE SFC LAYER
WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...MODEST 850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE SFC. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS WILL
POSE A SEVERE THREAT FROM ERN WI INTO ERN LOWER MI THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z...BUT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS THE LAKE.

..DIAL.. 07/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...ARX...

LAT...LON 44288990 46488628 46078422 44578521 43938584 44018817
44288990

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