WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 462

WWUS20 KWNS 042042
SEL2
SPC WW 042042
MIZ000-LEZ000-LHZ000-050200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 445 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST
OF LANSING MICHIGAN TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MOUNT CLEMENS
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 460...WW 461...

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A CONFLUENCE BAND
ACROSS CENTRAL/SE LOWER MI...WHERE A HOT/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS
IMPINGES ON THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...A SUBTLE MIDLEVEL SPEED
MAX IS MOVING SEWD OVER NRN LOWER MI. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY
AND MODEST NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH LATE EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31030.


...THOMPSON

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