DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 1

ACUS01 KWNS 260116
SWODY1
SPC AC 260113

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PART OF DELMARVA INTO SRN
DE...

CORRECTED CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC AND SLIGHT RISK HEADLINE

...SERN KS THROUGH OK TO PARTS OF NW TX...
TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTED THE CLOSED LOW MOVING EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL KS HAS LOST SOME OF ITS DEFINITION...WITH MODELS
INDICATING THE REMNANT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REACH NERN KS/NWRN MO
BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
LOW AND ATTENDANT SSWWD-EXTENDING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD
ACROSS ERN KS...CENTRAL OK AND NW TX OVERNIGHT. THIS ASCENT
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG A STRENGTHENING SSWLY
LLJ FROM NW TX THROUGH CENTRAL OK TO ERN KS WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD FROM WEST CENTRAL-NW TX
THROUGH MUCH OF WRN AND CENTRAL OK...ERN KS TO SRN IA. AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAINS THIS EVENING FROM SERN KS
THROUGH PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL OK TO NW TX...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY/RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE
PERIPHERY REGIONS OF ONGOING TSTMS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION/TSTMS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INHIBITION IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BY LATE EVENING.
THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN A LOW SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY FROM NW
TX...ERN TX PANHANDLE...THROUGH WRN AND NRN OK TO FAR SERN KS FOR
MAINLY THE EARLY-MID EVENING TIME PERIOD.

...DELMARVA TO SRN DE...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME LOW LEVEL ROTATION/ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT YET THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE OVERALL THREAT HAVING
SHIFTED NWD FROM DELMARVA TO SRN DE.

...S FL...
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ON THE MOVEMENT OF TS ISAAC. GIVEN
THE TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM REACHING THE WATERS N OF THE
CENTRAL CUBA COAST BY 12Z SUN...AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE NWRN-NRN PERIPHERY SUGGESTS ANY OUTER BANDS REACHING THE KEYS
AND THE MAINLAND PART OF S FL COULD POSE A TORNADO THREAT PRIOR TO
12Z. THUS...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN LOW TORNADO AND SEVERE WIND
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THESE AREAS.

..PETERS.. 08/26/2012

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