DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230050
SWODY1
SPC AC 230048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2012

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER WESTERLIES HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AREAS
NEAR/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER ONCE AGAIN...BUT WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING LINGERS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS ALREADY DECREASED
CONSIDERABLY WITH THE LOSS OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UPPER TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS GENERAL TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAY MAINTAIN GREATER
STORM COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DESPITE
THE LOSS OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.

ELSEWHERE...MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
PROVIDES SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF ONGOING STORM DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER...NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS
THIS REGION...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION APPEARS TO BE RESULTING
IN INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LINGERING LOW
SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL NEAR THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER WILL
PROBABLY ALSO DIMINISH BY 03-04Z.

FARTHER NORTH...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ON
THE NOSE OF THE PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET...AND AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS...MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER
...DESTABILIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT.

..KERR.. 08/23/2012

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