DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 240049
SWODY1
SPC AC 240047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN
AND N CNTRL KANSAS...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
A ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET /25-30 KT AT 850 MB/ APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS QUITE WEAK /ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KTS AT 500 MB/...BUT AS A
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS EVENING...GUIDANCE
INDICATES FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET /UP TO
50+ KT AT 850 MB/ THROUGH 05-06Z. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
TO SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATES AND GENERATES A STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL THROUGH
THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS.

...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
AN INSTABILITY AXIS...ASSOCIATED WITH A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE
HEATING...AHEAD OF A LOW-LEVEL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...HAS PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SOME STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW
IS FORECAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THROUGH THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME...INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO WANE SUFFICIENTLY THAT SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL
PROBABLY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER IMPULSE...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AHEAD OF A MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION AND
DESTABILIZATION MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT NEW...BUT GENERALLY
WEAK...STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.

..KERR.. 08/24/2012

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