DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220531
SWODY1
SPC AC 220529

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2012

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. EVEN AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS NEWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FROM FL NWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AND RAIN AND
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY.

TO THE W...A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS MT
DURING THE DAY...EMERGING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE...A SFC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO A
WEAK LOW OVER WRN SD AT 00Z. THIS TROUGH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
MARGINAL HAIL.

FARTHER W...A WEAK UPPER LOW WITH A COOL POCKET ALOFT WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS S CNTRL CA...AND INTO SRN NV/UT BY THU MORNING...AND WILL
PROMOTE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...SD SWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
SLY SFC WINDS WILL HELP MAINTAIN UPPER 40S F DEWPOINTS AS STRONG
HEATING AND MIXING OCCUR NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH BASED STORMS WILL BE LIKELY...AND WEAK BUT
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL CREATE SUFFICIENTLY LONG HODOGRAPHS
FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...PERHAPS INITIALLY AS SMALL CELLS
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND WIND...THEN MAINLY WIND AS OUTFLOWS SURGE. THE
THREAT AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY NARROW DURING THE DAY.

BY EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE WARM ADVECTION INTO SD
AND SRN MN. A HIGH BASED BUT UNSTABLE PROFILE WILL REMAIN...WITH
SOME WIND AND HAIL THREAT.

...SERN CA...SRN NV...NWRN AZ...SWRN UT...
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
RELATIVELY EARLY BETWEEN 18-21Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AREAS
THAT RECEIVE STRONG HEATING SUCH AS SRN CA INTO THE CO RIVER VALLEY
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS. SOME INCREASED
FLOW ALOFT WILL LENGTHEN HODOGRAPHS OVER SERN CA INTO NWRN AZ...BUT
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP GIVEN MOIST AIR
MASS AND ONGOING AREAS OF PRECIP...THUS HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY SMALL.

..JEWELL/COHEN.. 08/22/2012

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