DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 300434
SWODY1
SPC AC 300431

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...

TS ISAAC REMAINS PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD...AND IS
FORECAST BY NHC TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THURSDAY
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NWLY...GRADUALLY TURNING NNWLY AND REACHING
WCNTRL AR BY 12Z FRIDAY.

...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

A 55+ KT SELY LLJ EAST OF THE CYCLONE CENTER WILL SHIFT NWLY THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...MAINTAINING INFLUX OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST TORNADO EVENT
YESTERDAY WAS THE WIDESPREAD OVERCAST ATTENDING ISAAC THAT LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY. AS ISAAC CONTINUES INLAND...IT MAY BEGIN
TO ENTRAIN DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MORE CLOUD BREAKS
BETWEEN RAIN BANDS. IF THIS OCCURS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE GREATER AS WILL THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN EITHER CASE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
WILL PERSIST IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AS WILL THE THREAT OF MINI
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTIVE RAIN BANDS.

..DIAL/MOSIER.. 08/30/2012

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