DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200056
SWODY1
SPC AC 200054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN AR...SERN OK...NRN LA...
A FEW ISOLATED CELLS MAY POSE A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THESE ARE
STORMS BEING HELPED BY THE UPPER TROUGH BUT LOSS OF HEATING ALONG
WITH THE MIDLEVEL WARM LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WEAKENING
THIS EVENING.

...SC...
THE 00Z CHS SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY MOIST PROFILE WITH MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LONGER LIVED STORMS. WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
OUTFLOWS. STORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS SERN GA INTO SRN SC AS OF 0100Z
WITH ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WITH WINDS ALOFT INCREASE ACCORDINGLY.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE...INSTABILITY WILL NOT...BUT A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL WINDS.

...NRN NM INTO SW TX...
A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL PERSIST ACROSS ERN NM...AND THE STRONGEST
CORES MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS HELPED ALONG BY MOIST SLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SUFFICIENTLY LONG HODOGRAPHS. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL CONTINUED TO BE HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 08/20/2012

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