DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191248
SWODY1
SPC AC 191246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE ERN CAROLINAS
AND FAR SE VA...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EXIST FROM THE PLNS TO THE E CST AS
TROUGH AXIS LINGERS OVER THE LWR MS/OH VLYS. AT THE SFC...A WEAK
FRONT WILL LINGER FROM THE CAROLINAS W/SW ACROSS THE GULF CST STATES
INTO TX. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SOME DEGREE OF ASCENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IN SC
SHOULD MOVE NE ALONG IT LATER TODAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS. ELSEWHERE...WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH MODEST
NWLY WINDS ON WRN SIDE OF UPR TROUGH MAY FOSTER AFTN/EVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SRN RCKYS AND ADJACENT HI PLNS.

...ERN CAROLINAS/FAR SE VA TODAY...
WHILE MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OVER THE NC/SC CSTL PLN LATER TODAY AS SFC
HEATING DESTABILIZES MOIST AXIS /PW AOA 2 INCHES/ AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE. DEVELOPMENT ALSO WILL BE FOSTERED BY ASCENT
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING NE ACROSS REGION ON ERN
FRINGE OF LARGE SCALE UPR TROUGH.

AREA WIND PROFILES ALREADY SHOW AMPLE DEEP SWLY SHEAR FOR
SUSTAINED...ORGANIZED STORMS...AND LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
SHOULD SOMEWHAT STRENGTHEN AS LEAD UPR IMPULSE NOW IN GA CONTINUES
NE INTO THE CAROLINAS. COMBINATION OF RICH MOISTURE WITH 35-40 KT SW
700-500 MB FLOW...APPRECIABLE UPR DIVERGENCE IN ENTRANCE REGION OF
DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC HIGH-LVL JET STREAK...AND SLIGHTLY-BACKED
LOW LVL WINDS INVOF FRONT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR LOW LVL MESOS POSING A RISK FOR DMGG
WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTN AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR NE AS SE VA.

...NRN FL/SRN GA THIS AFTN...
SEASONABLY STRONG...DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
S GA/N FL TODAY ON SRN FRINGE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SFC HEATING
AND UPLIFT ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SEA BREEZE FRONTS MAY
YIELD STORM CLUSTERS CONTAINING TRANSIENT SMALL BOWS WITH LOCALLY
DMG WIND.

...AR INTO NRN LA THIS AFTN...
STRONG HEATING AND RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT IN AXIS OF UPR TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OVER PARTS OF THE SRN
OZARKS/LWR MS VLY TODAY. SCTD AFTN STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG WEAK SFC
TROUGH/SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE LOW FROM SRN MO INTO WRN AR. NWLY MID
LVL FLOW WILL ENHANCE HODOGRAPH LENGTH AND MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS
CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

...NRN NM THIS AFTN/EVE...
MODEST NWLY UPR LVL FLOW WILL EXIST ON THE WRN FRINGE OF MS VLY
TROUGH...ENHANCING DEEP DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS REGION AS LOW LVL
WINDS VEER TO SLY LATER TODAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT
TO SUPPORT A FEW SWD-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY
LOCALLY DMGG WIND INTO EARLY TNGT.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 08/19/2012

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