DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210034
SWODY1
SPC AC 210031

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2012

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTREME E CNTRL NM INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS...

...ERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...
A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE...WITH A FEW SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE.
BOTH HAIL AND WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
CAPPING STARTS TO INCREASE. THE 00Z AMA SOUNDING SHOWED A
RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE TO THE 700-500 MB
LAYER...WITH VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT.

OUTFLOW FROM THE LINE SHOULD DISRUPT THE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WITH
THE ENTIRE CLUSTER CONTINUING SEWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND S
PLAINS. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WELL CONTAINED WITHIN WW
568...AND SHOULD BE RELATIVELY ISOLATED OUTSIDE THE WATCH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...SEE MCD 1794.

...SERN STATES...
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE...WHERE A FEW POCKETS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAIN. ONE
AREA IS OVER SERN LA INTO SRN MS/AL. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM LIX TO JAN
SHOWED STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT RATHER WEAK WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 6 KM. A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS. TO THE E...STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS INTO THE
CAROLINAS BENEATH THE UPPER JET...BUT STORM COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WANE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND NO SUBSTANTIAL FORCING
MECHANISM.

..JEWELL.. 08/21/2012

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