DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190034
SWODY1
SPC AC 190032

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NWRN INTO CNTRL TX...
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SWD ALONG A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM NWRN TX INTO SERN TX. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE WEAKLY SHEARED
STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL...WITH HEAVY
RAIN LIKELY. THE BEST SHEAR FOR A FEW LONGER LIVED CELLS WITH HAIL
WILL BE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN TX WITH A BIT STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY
WANE AFTER SUNSET WITH LITTLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR LIFT. REF MCS
1788 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ERN AL INTO WRN GA...
A WEAK WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL CONTINUED EWD
ACROSS AL AND INTO WRN GA THIS EVENING. 00Z BMX AND FFC SOUNDINGS
SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR TALL STORMS WITH HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING AND A FEW WIND GUSTS.

...CAROLINAS...
A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND
CURRENTLY EXIST FROM CNTRL SC INTO ERN NC. THESE STORMS ARE BEING
SUPPORTED BY AROUND 30 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW...BUT FLOW IN THE LOWEST FEW
KM IS WEAK. OTHER STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY FORM ACROSS NRN GA INTO SC
LATER TONIGHT AS THE AL SYSTEM CONTINUES NEWD...BUT BY THEN
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
LITTLE THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 08/19/2012

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