DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 201715
SWODY2
SPC AC 201713

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN ROCKIES...

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AHEAD OF
TRANSITORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TUESDAY. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM
EXTREME ERN WA INTO WRN MT. WHILE PW VALUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO
BE PARTICULARLY HIGH ACROSS THIS REGION...LESS THAN ONE INCH...IT
APPEARS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL ALONG/AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

...SERN U.S...

POSITIVE-TILTED OH VALLEY TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT INTO THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY2 PERIOD. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TO OFF THE COAST OF DOWNEAST ME.
WHILE POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
SERN U.S. IT WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS
COULD EVOLVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN BROAD BUT MODEST SWLY FLOW
REGIME. ISOLATED LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

...ELSEWHERE...

LATEST WV IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO DIG SEWD ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FOCUSES
ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION AND FOR THIS REASON WILL
NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBS. EVEN SO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE
SEWD INTO CNTRL TX AND ULTIMATELY MAY REQUIRE LOW SEVERE PROBS TO
ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

..DARROW.. 08/20/2012

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