DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 230549
SWODY2
SPC AC 230548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS SWRN CANADA/FAR NWRN CONUS AT
12Z/FRI WILL EJECT EWD INTO THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES/EXTREME NRN
PLAINS BY EARLY SAT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...AND SHOULD MERGE WITH A REMNANT MOIST AXIS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

...ND/NWRN MN...
GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE DISSIMILAR WITH THE HANDLING OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AS GFS AND NMM/ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF APPEAR TOO
MOIST AND THE NAM/NMM-B MEMBERS OF THE SREF APPEAR A BIT TOO DRY.
WITH RICHER GULF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN MIXING RATIOS AOA 14
G/KG STILL REMAINING ALONG THE WRN GULF COAST PER 00Z RAOBS...THIS
PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE DRIER SPECTRUM OF GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE SHOULD OCCUR WITH APPROACH OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT WILL INTERSECT THE
MOIST AXIS.

ALTHOUGH THE BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS AND GREATER HEIGHT
FALLS WILL LAG THE SURGING COLD FRONT...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS
DEPICTING MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLYS BECOMING PREVALENT ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THIS SETUP APPEARS MOST CONDUCIVE TO YIELD HIGH-BASED
TSTMS THAT SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRI EVENING/NIGHT...WITHIN A
STEEP LAPSE RATE/MODERATE DEEP SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT
RISKS OF LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 08/23/2012

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