DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 240549
SWODY2
SPC AC 240548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY STRONG/PROGRESSIVE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL EXIST ACROSS
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS ON SATURDAY...WITH
UPPER RIDGING/WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PREVALENT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO
MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST.

...NORTHERN MN...
THE POSSIBILITY OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION REMAINS A
SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND
ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
NONETHELESS...UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL/GLANCING INFLUENCE OF
THE MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO UPPER TROUGH...AT LEAST ISOLATED
TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE
EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN. WHILE THE
STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LAG THE COLD FRONT...A LIMITED HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE SHOULD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION/TSTM REDEVELOPMENT OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY TODAY
SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD AND REACHES THE PLAINS
BY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A SUBTLE INFLUENCE FOR THE
REGION. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TSTMS SHOULD DIURNALLY
REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY ON THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF EARLY DAY
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...MOST PROBABLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OK/NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO.
WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK...POCKETS OF STRONGER
AFTERNOON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND A RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ACCOUNT FOR A LIMITED/SPORADIC DOWNBURST AND
SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL.

...SOUTH FL/FL KEYS...
CONSULT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER REGARDING THE LATEST FORECAST
TRACK/INTENSITY INFORMATION FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC. BASED ON
CURRENT NHC FORECASTS...THINKING IS THAT ANY TORNADO RISK FOR SOUTH
FL/FL KEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING ISAAC WILL NOT DEVELOP
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY. HENCE NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY APPEAR
WARRANTED FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

..GUYER.. 08/24/2012

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