DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 250600
SWODY2
SPC AC 250559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY TO A DEGREE ON SUNDAY. FLANKING
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN CONUS ROCKIES...AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS NEAR THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
APPROACH OF ISAAC WILL ALSO BE A CONSIDERABLE FACTOR FOR PORTIONS OF
FL.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL AND FL KEYS...
REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST FORECAST
TRACK/INTENSITY INFORMATION FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC. PER THE LATEST
NHC FORECASTS AND 00Z-BASED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...A STRONG LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD ON THE PERIPHERY OF ISAAC WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS FL DURING THE PERIOD...INITIALLY ACROSS
THE FL KEYS/SOUTH FL DURING THE DAY...AND EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL FL
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISAAC
REINTENSIFICATION AS IT CROSSES THE FL STRAITS...A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL SRH WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO
POTENTIAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERIPHERAL BANDS OF ISAAC.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...
RESIDUAL EARLY DAY COVER/PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO BE FACTORS ON
SUNDAY NEAR/AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND/OR EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY...WITH SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION LIKELY TO BE
WEAK AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. FURTHERMORE...OVERALL FORCING FOR
ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION/MIDWEST. NONETHELESS...TSTMS SHOULD REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A BROAD NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
CORRIDOR ACROSS THESE REGIONS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
THE MORE PREVALENT RESULT AMID WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR...SUFFICIENT WATER LOADING/DESTABILIZATION MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WHILE LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE
REGION...AMPLE HEATING/MIXING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN
NEB/SOUTHWEST SD SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IF/WHERE
STORMS OCCUR...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/WEAK BUOYANCY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH RELATIVELY STRONG MID-HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR
MARGINAL HAIL.

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY LINGER/DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT/AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION/POSSIBLE WEAKENING PHASE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...SEVERE
POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS VERY LOW OR AT LEAST UNCERTAIN. POSSIBLE
INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL AND/OR WIND WILL BE
REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

..GUYER.. 08/25/2012

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