DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 260550
SWODY2
SPC AC 260548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ALL OF FL EXCEPT THE WRN
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SRN GA...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY
UNCHANGED...WITH A TROUGH/LOW TO REMAIN OFF THE PAC NW COAST...A
RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED INVOF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN
ISAAC...CURRENTLY A T.S. BUT FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO
OR DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROPICAL
THREATS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD
ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND VICINITY.

...FL AND PARTS OF SRN GA...
WHILE THE CENTER OF ISAAC LIKELY TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD --
MOVING IN A CURVING NWWD PATH TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE...STRONG FLOW
WITHIN THE ERN HALF OF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT FL AND PARTS OF SRN
GA -- PROVIDING A LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
TORNADOES. WITH MULTIPLE EPISODES OF BANDED/CELLULAR PRECIPITATION
LIKELY TO SPREAD NWWD ACROSS THIS REGION...ENHANCED THREAT FOR
MAINLY BRIEF -- BUT POSSIBLY DAMAGING -- TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...PARTS OF SRN SD AND VICINITY...
AS A WEAK VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS...WEAK SURFACE RESPONSE -- IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE
LOW/WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SD VICINITY -- SUGGESTS PERSISTENT MODEST
UVV ACROSS THIS REGION. THOUGH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
BOUNDARY LAYER CAP SHOULD LARGELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THE
AFOREMENTIONED UVV -- FOCUSED INVOF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT --
AND MARGINAL CAPE ATOP THE DEEP MIXED LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA. THOUGH FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALSO REMAIN LIMITED WITH RESPECT TO STORM ORGANIZATION
POTENTIAL...PRESENCE OF A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER COULD ENHANCE LOCAL
DOWNDRAFTS -- AND THUS WILL INTRODUCE A 5% AREA FOR GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL THROUGH MID EVENING.

..GOSS.. 08/26/2012

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