DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 280600
SWODY2
SPC AC 280559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. IS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD...AS TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW SHIFTS EWD AND INTERACTS
WITH THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. WHILE
THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE...THE RIDGE WILL
LIKEWISE BE SUPPRESSED BY THE TROUGH -- RESULTING IN AN OVERALL
FLATTENING OF THE FLOW FIELD.

MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD REMAINS
ISAAC...WHICH ATTM IS EXPECTED TO BE ONSHORE BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY WITH TIME...SPREADING AN AREA OF ISOLATED TORNADO
POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE S CENTRAL AND SERN U.S. THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION REGARDING T.S.
ISAAC...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE NHC.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
LATEST NHC FORECASTS PLACE ISAAC OVER SERN LA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WEAKENING TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS IT SHIFTS NNEWD UP
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SURROUNDING THE STORM...THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
ISAAC REMAINS A FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL ROTATING CELLULAR ELEMENTS
WITHIN THE BROADER PRECIPITATION ZONE. THUS...WILL MAIN SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION -- HIGHLIGHTING
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

...PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...
WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEWD AROUND THE CREST
OF THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE AND AFFECT THE NRN PLAINS REGION THIS
PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE FRONTAL PROGRESSION ACROSS THIS
AREA. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT LARGE-SCALE RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE...
AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING OF AN ALREADY DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL
RESULT IN VERY DEEP INVERTED-V TYPE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS
THIS REGION.

A FEW HIGH-BASED /NEAR 600 MB/ THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN EXPECTED AMPLE CAPE THROUGH THE
MID TROPOSPHERE ATOP THE DEEP/DRY MIXED LAYER. WITH EVAPORATIVE
ENHANCEMENT OF DOWNDRAFTS POSSIBLE...WILL INTRODUCE A
LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE AREA TO COVER ANY RISK OF AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUST.

..GOSS.. 08/28/2012

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