DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 311731
SWODY2
SPC AC 311729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN CONUS AND CANADA ON SATURDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH SPREADING EASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CONUS ROCKIES. THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY VICINITIES.

...MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OZARKS...
THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER MO THROUGH SATURDAY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
WILL ACCOMPANY REMNANT ISAAC WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MOST
PROBABLE/IMPACTFUL HAZARD. THAT SAID...SOME CONCERN FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO AND/OR SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE MAY CONTINUE AS WELL ON
SATURDAY. WHILE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
PREVALENT...THERE ARE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATIONS THAT A BIT STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION COULD DIURNALLY OCCUR ON THE S/SE PERIPHERY OF
REMNANT ISAAC. GIVEN THIS...RELATIVELY STRONG/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND AN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SRH ENVIRONMENT /ALBEIT LIKELY A BIT
WEAKER AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY/ MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST
TRANSIENT MINI-SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

...INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/EASTERN GREAT DIVIDE...
A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW /35-40 KT/ WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CA/DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE OR
TWO...MODERATE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SUFFICIENT PW ENVIRONMENT
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SUSTAINED/SEMI-ORGANIZED TSTMS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE TSTMS MAY
BE CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL.

...AZ...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE PREVALENT ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES INTO PARTS OF AZ/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HR. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A
MODESTLY ENHANCED BELT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW SUSTAINED/STRONGER TSTMS CAPABLE OF WIND AND/OR MARGINAL
HAIL.

...SOUTHERN/EASTERN MT TO MUCH OF ND/WESTERN SD...
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH A SHARPENING DAKOTAS SURFACE LOW/LEE
TROUGH AND AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS MT. TSTMS WILL
INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED BASIS ACROSS MT...AND PERHAPS
INTO WESTERN SD/MUCH OF ND BY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. IN SPITE OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES/INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...THE PRIMARY LIMITATION WILL
BE LIMITED MOISTURE/BUOYANCY...ALTHOUGH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY ACCOUNT FOR GUSTY WINDS WHERE TSTMS INDEED OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BUT OVERALL...SCENARIO CURRENTLY APPEARS
MUCH TOO UNCERTAIN/MARGINAL TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

..GUYER.. 08/31/2012

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