DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 231703
SWODY2
SPC AC 231701

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NRN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO CNTRL ND AND WRN SD. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BENEATH A PLUME
OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS ALONG WITH 35 TO 45 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY PROBLEM CONCERNING THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS A CAPPING INVERSION FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE CAP...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR AND JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH CONVECTION LIKELY BECOMING ELEVATED DURING THE
EARLY TO MID EVENING. THIS MAY KEEP THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
RELATIVELY BRIEF COINCIDING WITH THE MAX IN INSTABILITY. THE HAIL
THREAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND EVEN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE SEE TEXT AREA ESPECIALLY IF A LARGER CLUSTER CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS
THE REGION.

...TX AND OK PANHANDLES/FAR SE CO/SW KS...
AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING
THE DAY...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN
CO AND WRN KS SWD ACROSS WEST TX AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EWD INTO THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE INSTABILITY
AXIS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND
20 KT. HOWEVER...A LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH FLOW AT 850 MB INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN AREAS
WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 08/23/2012

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