DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 220731
SWODY3
SPC AC 220729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2012

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS SWRN CANADA/FAR NWRN CONUS AT
12Z/FRI WILL EJECT EWD INTO THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES/EXTREME NRN
PLAINS BY EARLY SAT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...AND SHOULD MERGE WITH A REMNANT
TROUGH/EFFECTIVE DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. FARTHER S...A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...NRN PLAINS...
INITIALIZATION AND FORECAST ERRORS DISCUSSED IN THE D2 OUTLOOK
APPEAR TO PERSIST INTO D3. GFS AND WRF-NMM/ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF
ARE SEEMINGLY TOO MOIST/AGGRESSIVE WITH DEPICTIONS OF LOW-LEVEL DEW
POINTS COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET. THESE KNOWN BIASES
RELEGATE THE NAM TO BEING THE ONLY MODEL HAVING THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETER GUIDANCE FOR USE THIS FORECAST. WITH PERHAPS ONLY MINIMAL
BUOYANCY BETWEEN THE FRONT AND REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH...TSTMS MAY
STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP UNTIL FRI EVENING/NIGHT AS CONSOLIDATION OF THE
BOUNDARIES OCCURS. NEVERTHELESS...GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT THE
BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS WILL LAG THIS MERGER. ORGANIZED
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 08/22/2012

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