DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 070842
SWOD48
SPC AC 070842

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4/FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT HIGH AMPLITUDE POSITIVE TILT
TROUGH WILL HAVE EVOLVED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS WITH RESULTANT MODERATE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND MID ATLANTIC. A MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT MODERATE CAPE AS
DIABATIC WARMING COMMENCES. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF
FORCING ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

DAY 5/SATURDAY...SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER FROM ERN CAROLINAS
INTO THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES...MAINLY THE FIRST
HALF OF DAY. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EFFECTS OF ONGOING CONVECTION
PRECLUDES INTRODUCTION OF A DAY 5 RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.

DAY 6/SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE ERN SEABOARD AS UPPER
TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NEWD INTO SERN CANADA. TRAILING FRONT
WILL EXTEND SWWD INTO OK OR KS. WITH WARM SECTOR HAVING SHIFTED
SOUTH OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED.

..DIAL.. 08/07/2012

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