DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 240847
SWOD48
SPC AC 240846

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LIKELY
PERSISTENCE OF A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED BELT OF WESTERLIES OVER CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
MODEL VARIABILITY REGARDING LOWER AMPLITUDE FEATURES INCREASES DAY 5
AND BEYOND.

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD WILL BE ON TROPICAL SYSTEM
ISAAC...WITH THE PERIPHERAL OUTER BANDS OF ISAAC LIKELY TO AT LEAST
GRAZE MUCH OF FL ON DAY 4/MONDAY BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
TRACK/INTENSITY. AS SUCH...A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF FL ON DAY 4/MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
DOES NOT EXIST IN 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE/TORNADO PROBABILITIES
AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT TORNADO
POTENTIAL COULD CONTINUE INTO DAYS 5-6 TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES AS ISAAC POTENTIALLY MOVES
INLAND BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST GUIDANCE.

ELSEWHERE...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AROUND DAYS 5-6
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE TIMING /AT TO A LESSER
DEGREE SPATIAL/ UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE FORECAST
ADVANCEMENT OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

..GUYER.. 08/24/2012

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