DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 260807
SWOD48
SPC AC 260807

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012

VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL DIFFERENCES -- PRIMARILY CENTERED ON HANDLING OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM ISAAC AS IT MOVES ONSHORE/INLAND -- ARE APPARENT
THIS PERIOD...WITHIN THE BACKGROUND UPPER FLOW PATTERN WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY STAGNANT AND RELATIVELY WEAK. THOUGH SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY ACCOMPANY ISAAC -- ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...GREATER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...A LOW-AMPLITUDE VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
ENEWD OUT OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
U.S. DAYS 4-5 /WED AND THU 8-29 AND 8-30/...ALONG WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT. THOUGH SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM -- PARTICULARLY DAY 4 ACROSS THE ND/NRN
MN VICINITY...THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
INTRODUCTION OF AN EQUIVALENT 30% THREAT AREA ATTM. OTHERWISE...NO
OBVIOUS/ORGANIZED SEVERE THREATS ARE EVIDENT ATTM THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 08/26/2012

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