MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1686

ACUS11 KWNS 022238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022237
NEZ000-COZ000-030000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT THU AUG 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022237Z - 030000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SVR TSTMS WITH A DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...SVR TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR ACROSS
THE ERN NEB PANHANDLE. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE WIND
SHIFT/DEW POINT GRADIENT AND WILL MOVE EWD INTO INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KTS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELL STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IF STORMS INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
COVERAGE...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY SOME CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

..BUNTING/HART.. 08/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41110264 41890329 42150260 41870009 41039881 40439863
40580119 41430302 41110264

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.