MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1713

ACUS11 KWNS 052238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052238
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-060045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NJ...EXTREME ERN PA...ERN MD...DE...SERN
NY...CT...RI...MA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564...

VALID 052238Z - 060045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WW IS BEING EXTENDED EWD ACROSS PORTIONS NJ PER COORD
W/WFO PHI. WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY QLCS...WHICH WAS
EVIDENT AT 2215Z FROM ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY MD NNEWD ACROSS EXTREME
ERN PA TO ULSTER COUNTY NY. ACTIVITY FARTHER W ACROSS WRN PA AND WV
SHOULD NOT REACH THIS REGION BEFORE SCHEDULED WW EXPIRATION
TIME...NOR SHOULD IT POSE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT BY THEN.

DISCUSSION...MEASURED GUSTS AT STATIONS ACROSS WHICH QLCS HAS PASSED
HAVE BEEN SUB-SVR...PEAKING AT 44 KT AT RDG AT 2059Z. GIVEN
PRESENCE OF WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ACTIVITY IS DRIVEN LARGELY BY
FORCED ASCENT ALONG ITS GUST FRONT...WHICH HAS SURGED AHEAD OF MAIN
REFLECTIVELY CORES IN SOME AREAS. WHILE THIS COMPLEX IS NOT
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO ANY GEN STRENGTHENING...EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP
FEATURES STILL MAY POSE LOCALIZED RISK OF WIND DAMAGE EVEN WHERE
GUSTS ARE SUB-SVR. BRIEF/LOCALIZED INTENSIFICATION ALSO MAY OCCUR
WHERE PORTIONS OF THIS LINE ENCOUNTER NJ SEA BREEZE...BEFORE
SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OCCURS. NARROW RIBBON OF FAVORABLE
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR IS EVIDENT BETWEEN DE RIVER AREA AND SEA BREEZE
FRONT OVER PORTIONS CAPE MAY/ATLANTIC/OCEAN/MONMOUTH COUNTIES NJ.
IN THAT CORRIDOR...SFC TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S F...AND DEW POINTS
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...OFFSET WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ENOUGH TO YIELD MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...DECREASING NWD TOWARD
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE EARLIER CONVECTION STABILIZED AIR MASS
SOMEWHAT. LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT MRGL/ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL NE OF WW FROM NERN NJ OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM GIVEN CONVECTIVE/AIR-MASS
TRENDS.

..EDWARDS.. 08/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...LWX...

LAT...LON 38977651 39577565 40817459 41747372 42277120 41787083
41517104 41137149 40857244 40597339 40537392 40507407
40437398 39837406 39387435 39207467 38937484 38927512
38717509 38717586 38977651

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