MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1714

ACUS11 KWNS 052332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052331
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-060130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1714
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...ARKLATEX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 052331Z - 060130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED IN SRN AR POSING AN ISOLATED RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER
FLOW AND EXPECTED WEAKENING OF THE CLUSTER AFTER DARK...THE ISSUANCE
OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER WCNTRL AR
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MERGED INTO AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER PROPAGATING SWD
AT AROUND 20 KTS INTO SRN AR. REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATE AROUND 20
KTS OF NLY 0-3 KM SHEAR WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL UPSCALE
GROWTH. GIVEN THAT THESE STORMS ARE PROPAGATING THROUGH A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. WITH THE CLUSTER OF STORMS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
EVENING /AS INDICATED BY OUTFLOW SURGING AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS ON LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY/...A WW WILL NOT BE NECESSARY.

..JIRAK/HART.. 08/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33719447 33669408 33559360 33469322 33389283 33399267
33389250 33279236 33139230 32999236 32829251 32629274
32559291 32489315 32449345 32479381 32549418 32649444
32799461 32949481 33199484 33479478 33719447

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