MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1716

ACUS11 KWNS 062259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062258
NEZ000-COZ000-070130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN CO TO N-CENTRAL NEB.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 062258Z - 070130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR/DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN BAND OF
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THIS CORRIDOR.
THREAT IS STRONGLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT
02Z.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK/RESIDUAL FRONT FROM CENTRAL
MN SWWD ACROSS SERN SD...THROUGH WEAK LOW IN SD NE ANW...THEN SWWD
NEAR ANW-OGA LINE...THROUGH ANOTHER WEAK LOW NEAR AKO...THEN SWWD
BETWEEN COS-PUB. BOUNDARY IS DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS MOST OF
DISCUSSION AREA...AND EFFECTIVELY WILL BE SHUNTED FARTHER SEWD BY
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION DEVELOPING THEREON. INCREASING MOISTURE
WITH NEWD EXTENT RESULTS IN MLCAPE RANGING FROM LESS THAN 500 J/KG
IN AKO AREA TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER CENTRAL/NERN NEB...BASED ON
MODIFIED MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS. BUOYANCY INCREASES WITH EWD EXTENT
INTO RICHER MOISTURE OVER ERN NEB...WHERE SFC DEW POINTS REACH MID
60S F...BUT ELM-RELATED CINH ALSO STRENGTHENS CONSIDERABLY INTO ERN
NEB. JUST E OF BOUNDARY...CAPE WILL RESIDE OVER DEEP/WELL-MIXED
SUBCLOUD LAYERS SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO ACCELERATE
WITH DAMAGING/ISOLATED SVR GUSTS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH STG VEERING
WITH HEIGHT IS EVIDENT...WEAK LOW-LEVEL SPEEDS LIMIT HODOGRAPH
SIZE...BENEATH ABOUT 45-55 KT ANVIL-LEVEL FLOW. PREDOMINANT MODE
THUS SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. MEAN WIND/SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY
ORTHOGONAL TO BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT MIXTURE OF DISCRETE AND
SMALL-CLUSTER MODES...LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE/WELL-ORGANIZED
COLD POOLS...THEN BY EXTENSION LIMITING LONGEVITY AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF THREAT.

..EDWARDS/HART.. 08/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 40030308 42899963 42869853 40060209 40030308

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