MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1722

ACUS11 KWNS 082331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082331
AZZ000-090200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 082331Z - 090200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS
PROPAGATE SWWD ACROSS SERN AZ...BUT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY SWWD
ACROSS SERN AZ...AND WILL EMERGE INTO THE VALLEYS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WEAK ELY FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST...WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS SRN AZ WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S F. WITH THE WEAK
FLOW...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS UNLIKELY BUT LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 08/08/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 31871286 32421256 33501201 33941134 34021089 33491036
32861015 32171018 31281029 31291102 31871286

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