MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1746

ACUS11 KWNS 122328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122328
ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...ERN OK...NWRN AR...SERN KS AND SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 122328Z - 130100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS OF ERN OK...SERN KS INTO SWRN MO AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN AR. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS ERN KS
SWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOW PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENT FLOW FROM ERN OK INTO SWRN KS. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENT ZONE WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. DEEPER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER IA WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THIS REGION...AND PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CAP APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY
WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS ERN OK INTO SERN KS TO SUPPORT STORM
INITIATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF
WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS NCNTRL AR AS MODEST LLJ INCREASES THIS
EVENING. BELT OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WITHIN BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO 30-40 KT VERTICAL SHEAR...SUGGESTING A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION AS WELL AS EVOLVE INTO BOWING
SEGMENTS.

..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 08/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33269560 35329632 36419596 37569520 37959449 37239395
35369227 34869390 33259461 33269560

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