MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1803

ACUS11 KWNS 240224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240223
KSZ000-240330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1803
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0923 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587...

VALID 240223Z - 240330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND IN STORM INTENSITIES AS
INDICATED BY CAPPI AT 7KM AND 9 KM SUGGESTS THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE AS WELL ACROSS WRN
KS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY NEW
INTENSIFICATION...BUT IF WEAKENING TRENDS PERSIST THEN WW 587 COULD
BE LOCALLY CANCELLED PRIOR TO 06Z.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY /SINCE 01Z/ INDICATED
A PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF OVERALL STORM INTENSITIES WITH THE ONGOING
CLUSTER OF STORMS LOCATED IN MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF WW 587. SINCE
ISSUANCE OF THIS WATCH...TSTM ACTIVITY HAS GRADUALLY REDEVELOPED SWD
AS WAS EXPECTED PER RUN-TO-RUN AGREEMENT IN THE HRRR...BUT THAT
MODEL SUGGESTED THERE WOULD BE STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
LEADING SWD EXTENT OF THIS TSTM COMPLEX. THIS LATTER FORECAST
EXPECTATION HAS NOT OCCURRED...AND GIVEN THE WEAKENING TRENDS IN
RADAR IMAGERY AND GRADUAL CLOUD TOP WARMING...THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPSCALE GROWTH APPEARS TO BE LOW. LOW LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITHIN THE NOSE OF A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ AND SUSTAIN OVERNIGHT TSTM ACTIVITY. IF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING TRENDS CONTINUE AND SINCE THERE IS A LACK
OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
BE LOW OVERNIGHT...INDICATING A LOCAL CANCELLATION OF WW 587 PRIOR
TO 06Z WOULD BE APPROPRIATE.

..PETERS.. 08/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 38180173 38800190 39150195 39150147 39590110 39569842
38459851 38109938 37990054 37870123 37860176 38180173

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