MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1808

ACUS11 KWNS 250337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250336
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-250430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1808
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588...

VALID 250336Z - 250430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /STRONG WIND GUST/ SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TIME FOR WW
588...WITH A FURTHER DIMINISHING TREND IN THE COVERAGE OF INTENSE
STORMS.

DISCUSSION...ASIDE FROM A BRIEF INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT/
INTENSITY ACROSS KIDDER COUNTY ND BETWEEN 0230-03Z...OVERALL TRENDS
IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND 7 KM AND 9 KM CAPPI LEVELS SUGGEST THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN THE REMAINING PORTION OF WW 588 IS
DIMINISHING. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WERE LOCATED OVER EAST
CENTRAL-NERN ND WHICH APPEARS TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ENEWD AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE SRN
SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS STATED...THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO WANE ACROSS ERN ND DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INHIBITION. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL WAA INTO THIS REGION WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED TSTMS INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVITY REACHING NWRN MN.

..PETERS.. 08/25/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 48559837 48259714 46909684 45959694 45899894 45949976
47179938 48399932 48559837

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