MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1833

ACUS11 KWNS 291953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291953
SDZ000-NDZ000-292130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1833
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL SD...SWRN/S-CNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291953Z - 292130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL SD AND SWRN/S-CNTRL ND THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT THE SVR WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT
ARCING S-SWWD-WWD ACROSS WRN ND INTO SRN MT...WHILE A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED S-SEWD ACROSS CNTRL SD INTO NWRN IA. THE AIRMASS S OF THE
COLD FRONT AND W OF THE WARM FRONT IS VERY HOT AND WELL
MIXED...WHILE CONDITIONS N AND E OF THE COLD FRONT/WARM FRONT ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS ARE DEEPENING INVOF THE
BLACK HILLS...WITH ONE CELL PRODUCING A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES.
AS THIS CUMULUS SPREADS E-NEWD TOWARD THE WARM FRONT...ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SLIGHTLY
GREATER MOISTURE AND CAPE IS ENCOUNTERED. IN ADDITION...OTHER STORMS
MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES E TOWARD CNTRL
ND. THOUGH STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED
FARTHER N NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...STEEP LOW AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STRONG/SVR MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA.

..GARNER/WEISS.. 08/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 47030282 47370171 46690061 44510047 43930148 44260257
46170312 47030282

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