MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1836

ACUS11 KWNS 300121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300121
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-300245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1836
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0821 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN MS...SW AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 595...

VALID 300121Z - 300245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 595 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS SE LA...SRN
MS AND SW AL LATE THIS EVENING. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DEVELOP NWD WITH ROTATING STORMS THAT PERSIST WITHIN THE BANDS OF
ISAAC.

DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC IS CURRENTLY JUST
SOUTH OF BATON ROUGE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS THE
SYSTEM TO CONTINUE MOVING NWWD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.
RAINBANDS EXTEND FROM 175 TO 200 STATUTE MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER. MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WRAPPING EWD AND SWD ACROSS THE NERN QUADRANT OF
ISAAC ABOUT 100 STATUTE MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THIS IS CREATING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHICH IS SAMPLED WELL BY THE NEW ORLEANS 00Z
SOUNDING WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 300 TO 325 M2/S2.
THIS COMBINED WITH LCL HEIGHTS VERY CLOSE TO GROUND LEVEL AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S F SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
LOW-ROTATING CLOUD BASES AND TORNADO FORMATION. THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH INDIVIDUAL CELL
ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE MORE INTENSE RAINBANDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER OF ISAAC.

..BROYLES.. 08/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 28868871 28668896 28648931 28608959 28888982 28789008
29099011 29189001 29329018 29329001 29459014 29629018
29729034 29919063 30169067 30099118 30139147 30449174
30839182 31069169 30989159 31189162 31299161 31269147
31409154 31459149 31559149 31549140 31619152 31629139
31839136 31819125 32009108 32069115 32229071 32049069
32048973 32238973 32238844 31718846 31708810 31588810
31548794 31298791 31108795 31298777 31308760 30998759
30818760 30648738 30458742 30298749 30328723 29968713
29838818 29898826 29858845 29608853 29418867 29138860
28868871

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