MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1845

ACUS11 KWNS 312006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312006
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-312100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1845
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NY TO PORTIONS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 312006Z - 312100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF
UPSTATE NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. IF GREATER DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
AIR MASS AS SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z NAM...THEN WW ISSUANCE WOULD BECOME
MORE LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CU/TCU INCREASING IN
DEPTH ALONG THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT WITH LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATING A FEW TSTMS NORTH OF MAINE AND FARTHER SW IN FAR SRN
QUEBEC /AT 100 NNE MSS AND 100 NNW EFK/. IN ADDITION TO THIS
ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD REACH THE NH AND NWRN MAINE BORDER REGIONS
WITH CANADA BETWEEN 22-00Z...OBSERVATIONAL DATA ALSO ELEVATED
CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD INTO FAR UPSTATE NY AND NWRN VT
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

KINEMATICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION PER OBSERVATION OF A
70 KT WNWLY MIDLEVEL JET EVIDENT ON BTV WSR-88D VAD...AND A 30-40 KT
WSWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN
STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR OF 50+ KT. MEANWHILE...THERMODYNAMICS ARE
CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT MEAGER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO SUPPORT
STRONGER UPDRAFTS...LIKELY DUE TO PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS NOW LOCATED
ACROSS FAR NRN VT INTO ADJACENT CANADA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
INDICATED GRADUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EWD FROM SRN ONTARIO
INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN ENGLAND...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT/GREATER INSTABILITY FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AS THE COLD
FRONT REACHES THIS REGION AFTER 22-23Z.

..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 08/31/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON 47086788 45846777 44717003 44097224 43817367 44437450
45087465 45187299 45317172 45837082 46497013 46926952
47086788

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