ACUS01 KWNS 140453
SWODY1
SPC AC 140451
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2012
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE LOWER
MO RIVER VALLEY SWWD TO THE DESERT SW. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NRN NY BY EVENING AS THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME FROM
THE OZARKS INTO ERN TX. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM WV-PA NNEWD...AND IN A SEPARATE AREA FROM ERN OK/WRN AR
SWD TO THE GULF COAST.
...NY ADIRONDACKS/NRN VT...
FILTERED SUNSHINE WITHIN A NARROW MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MODEST DESTABILIZATION BY PEAK HEATING /250-750 J/KG SBCAPE/
ACCORDING TO VARIOUS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN A VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE. IN
TURN...THIS MAY SUPPORT A STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO
AS THE LOWER TOPPED CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING IN TANDEM WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING.
..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 09/14/2012
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