DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200535
SWODY1
SPC AC 200533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN KS/SWRN MO...

WEAK SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NRN OK EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE RETREATING TOWARD THE KS BORDER BY 21/00Z. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE FORCING THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM
NWRN TX INTO CNTRL OK WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID 90S. THESE READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TOWARD NCNTRL OK.
HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROVE RATHER SPARSE AND SHOULD WEAKEN
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE REGARDING THE STRENGTHENING OF LLJ...ALBEIT SIGNIFICANTLY
VEERED...ACROSS NERN OK INTO SWRN MO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY INDUCE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A
MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD SEEM SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE OF
ROBUST UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FOR THIS
REASON WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED HAIL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...FL...

20/00Z SOUNDING FROM KEY DEPICTED A FAIRLY BUOYANT PROFILE WITH
500MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 8C WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE NAM SUGGESTS POOR LAPSE RATES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS
SOUTH FL THURSDAY GFS SOUNDINGS ARE LIKELY MORE REPRESENTATIVE
ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...ALTHOUGH
PROFILES ARE QUITE MOIST THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. LATEST THINKING IS
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION/CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S.
WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND MOST
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

..DARROW/GARNER.. 09/20/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.