ACUS01 KWNS 111914
SWODY1
SPC AC 111912
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2012
VALID 112000Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
..JEWELL.. 09/11/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER ERN ND/NWRN MN WILL EJECT NE OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SHORTLY...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR
ISOLATED WEAK STORMS SHIFTING NEWD INTO CANADA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/MARGINAL ELEVATED
BUOYANCY TRAILING SWWD FROM THE IMPULSE...AMIDST A NOCTURNALLY
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM AND WEAK WAA...MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED WEAK STORM OR TWO FROM NRN MN TO LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD ACROSS
THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK
OF STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT/INSTABILITY...THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD BE VERY LOW.
ELSEWHERE...NON-SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
DIFFUSE...STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SOUTH FL PENINSULA AMIDST
NEARLY-2-INCH PW VALUES...AS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED -- FAVORED OVER THE WEST COAST. ALSO...SCATTERED STORMS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WITH EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL EXIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST/CNTRL GREAT BASIN EWD INTO
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. IN BOTH CASES...WEAK
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE/STRENGTH.
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