DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141928
SWODY1
SPC AC 141926

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2012

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NY AND PA...
A FEW CELLS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NWRN PA INTO W
CNTRL NY WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED. GIVEN THE GRADUAL
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND INCREASING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVOR FOR CELLULAR CONVECTION.
THIS STORM MODE WOULD SUGGEST A MINIMAL WIND THREAT...BUT 30 KT FLOW
AROUND 700 MB SUGGESTS GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR. WITH SUCH WEAK
INSTABILITY...ONLY SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SEVERE WIND GUST WILL BE OVER NRN NY LATER TODAY...WHERE THE
STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE TROUGH WILL OCCUR. STORMS COULD BECOME A
BIT MORE LINEAR AT THAT TIME.

..JEWELL.. 09/14/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT FRI SEP 14 2012/

...NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
CROSSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD
AND BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES OVER THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE EWD REACHING THE NRN AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST REGION BY LATE
TONIGHT. MINIMAL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE DIABATIC
HEATING WITHIN A SEASONABLY MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /SURFACE DEW
POINTS GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60/...HOWEVER WEAK
ENVIRONMENTAL LAPSE RATES SEEN IN 12Z RAOBS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF UPSTATE NY INTO NWRN VT...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

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