DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141620
SWODY1
SPC AC 141618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT FRI SEP 14 2012

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
CROSSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD
AND BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES OVER THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE EWD REACHING THE NRN AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST REGION BY LATE
TONIGHT. MINIMAL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE DIABATIC
HEATING WITHIN A SEASONABLY MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /SURFACE DEW
POINTS GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60/...HOWEVER WEAK
ENVIRONMENTAL LAPSE RATES SEEN IN 12Z RAOBS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF UPSTATE NY INTO NWRN VT...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

..WEISS/ROGERS.. 09/14/2012

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