DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201656
SWODY1
SPC AC 201637

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1137 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
WESTERN SD MOVING INTO NE. MODELS SHOW THIS IMPULSE TRACKING
QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF KS/MO
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS MO/KS WILL STALL THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MEAGER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN
THE 50S, WITH LOW LEVELS 850/925 FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO EASTERN OK THIS EVENING. THOSE
STORMS THAT FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF HAIL AS THEY TRACK TOWARD
SOUTHERN IL. ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL MO /
SOUTHERN IL INTO NORTHWESTERN OH/ EASTERN LOWER MI.
ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF FL AND SOUTHERN GA. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

..15_OWS.. 09/20/2012

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