DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111238
SWODY1
SPC AC 111236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2012

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO S-CNTRL
CANADA WILL INTENSIFY THIS PERIOD WHILE PROPAGATING NEWD...FOSTERING
A SUBSTANTIAL LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND SUBSEQUENT UPPER LOW FORMATION
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PARTS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. FARTHER S...A
NUMBER OF WEAKER PERTURBATIONS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...EMBEDDED WITHIN A
WEAKER...SWLY AIR STREAM.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE CNTRL DAKOTAS
INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SWD
INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG MIDLEVEL
TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA.

...LOWER CO VALLEY AND GREAT BASIN EWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
ROCKIES...

A VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER NRN BAJA/GULF OF CA WILL PROGRESS ENEWD
TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES INTO ADVANCE OF A MORE COMPACT SYSTEM WHICH
WILL MOVE FROM THE CNTRL CA COAST ESEWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY BY
12/12Z. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY.
NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH
OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
ABOVE-MENTIONED IMPULSES WILL GIVE RISE TO SCATTERED TSTMS BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
PROBABILITIES.

...FL...

DAYTIME HEATING AND A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT /I.E. PW VALUES AOA 2
INCHES/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY
AFTERNOON ALONG/S OF STALLED SURFACE FRONT. ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
ENHANCE CONVERGE ALONG DEVELOPING WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH THE
MOST CONCENTRATED AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
W-CNTRL AND SWRN FL PENINSULA. HERE TOO...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO WATER LOADING EFFECTS...THOUGH THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN FIVE
PERCENT.

..MEAD/MOSIER.. 09/11/2012

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