DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201233
SWODY1
SPC AC 201230

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2012

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND. MODELS SHOW THIS IMPULSE
TRACKING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF
NEB/IA/KS/MO AFTER DARK. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS MO/KS WILL STALL THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MEAGER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S.
HOWEVER...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LIFT AND
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO
EASTERN OK THIS EVENING. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF
HAIL AS THEY TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN IL. ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS ALONG AN AXIS FROM IL INTO OH/LOWER MI. ALSO...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER MUCH OF FL AND SOUTHERN GA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 09/20/2012

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