DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151844
SWODY1
SPC AC 151842

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE...NO
CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..JEWELL.. 09/15/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012/

...NEW ENGLAND...

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SERN
PROVINCES OF CANADA TODAY AHEAD OF A DISTINCT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
ACROSS ERN ME WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY EXPECTED BEFORE 21Z.

...SRN U.S...

SEVERAL WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES WILL INFLUENCE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN OTHERWISE WEAK FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
SRN U.S. THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITHIN A VERY MOIST PLUME FROM THE TX COAST INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE PW VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-2 INCHES.
POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY ACROSS
THIS REGION.

OTHER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PERSIST
WITHIN DEEP ELY FLOW ACROSS FL BUT MEAGER LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
ALSO SUGGEST UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN ROBUST INTENSITY
ACROSS THIS REGION.

...NWRN MT...

STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM ERN WA INTO NWRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE IS
QUITE MEAGER ACROSS THIS REGION THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ONE
OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE OVER/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NWRN MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PROVE VERY SPARSE AND CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.