DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120033
SWODY1
SPC AC 120031

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2012

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AIRMASS AND THE INFLUENCES OF TWO EASTWARD-MIGRATING UPPER
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME
TSTM POTENTIAL TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN CA AND
THE GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE ON
AN INCREASINGLY ISOLATED BASIS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER NOCTURNALLY
COOLS/STABILIZES. SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED...ALTHOUGH
SPORADIC STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM
FOR THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/AZ.

ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO
VALLEY/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. SUFFICIENT NEAR/POST-SURFACE FRONTAL
UPLIFT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW TSTMS TONIGHT IN THESE AREAS...BUT SUCH
POTENTIAL APPEARS VERY LOW GIVEN MINIMAL MOISTURE CONTENT/POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY.

FOR SOUTH FL...ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY
NEAR COASTAL SOUTH FL AND THE FL KEYS.

..GUYER.. 09/12/2012

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