DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 260557
SWODY2
SPC AC 260556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHERE SOMEWHAT FASTER CYCLONIC FLOW
FIELD SHOULD PERSIST...A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FLOW FIELD IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. THIS PERIOD. NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS A ZONE EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS LOWER MO/MID MS/OH VALLEYS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITHIN MODEST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WLYS.

BENEATH THIS BELT OF WLYS...A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO PERSIST. THIS FRONT WILL FOCUS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...VA WWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
THE WEAK/NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WWD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES WILL AGAIN BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BAND OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND WHILE WEAKENING
SOME THROUGH MIDDAY...SHOULD REDEVELOP/EXPAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING WHERE MODEST HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR.

THE ONGOING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD HINDER MORE ROBUST
DESTABILIZATION -- THUS TEMPERING OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH
20 TO 30 KT WLYS AT MID LEVELS ATOP THIS AREA COULD SUPPORT WEAK
ORGANIZATION LOCALLY. WHILE ANY POCKETS OF MORE FAVORABLE
DESTABILIZATION COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY CONCENTRATED AREAS OF
RISK...WILL OPT TO INTRODUCE ONLY LOW-PROBABILITY /5%/ HAIL/WIND
THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 09/26/2012

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