DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 281659
SWODY2
SPC AC 281657

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX GULF COAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK EWD ACROSS SCNTRL
TX SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD ACROSS CNTRL AND EAST TX.
THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE TX GULF COAST WHERE SOME
OF THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ALONG THE TX
GULF COAST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO STRENGTHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR DURING
THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT VICTORIA SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN
THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. THE ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS BUT LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK
SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT COULD REMAIN MARGINAL.

...CAROLINAS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS
ON SATURDAY. AT THE SFC... A COLD FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SWD ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
IN THE 60S F WHERE SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
IN SRN NC AND ERN SC SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING
THE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH A
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...IF
DESTABILIZATION IS HAMPERED BY CLOUD COVER...THEN THE SEVERE THREAT
COULD BE MINIMAL.

..BROYLES.. 09/28/2012

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