DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 291706
SWODY2
SPC AC 291704

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
SLOWLY ESEWD FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A
PRONOUNCED 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE UPPER TX
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO LA AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. A LARGE
AREA OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY. ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE RAINSHIELD...THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE AXIS
OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN SE TX COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES NEWD INTO LA AND
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP GIVEN THE VEERING WIND
PROFILES WITH HEIGHT BELOW 3 KM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN SRN LA AT 18Z SUN SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT WITH
LCL HEIGHTS BELOW 500 METERS. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH CELLS THAT ROTATE AND POSSIBLY A
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH SHORT LINE SEGMENTS.
HOWEVER...CONCERNS EXISTS ABOUT WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP. ONCE CERTAINTY INCREASES CONCERNING DESTABILIZATION...A
SLIGHT RISK COULD BE ADDED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN LA IN LATER OUTLOOK
UPDATES.

..BROYLES.. 09/29/2012

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